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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
What is Bull Fiesta?
The report highlighted the intense workload by estimating that a manager looking after 250 players would have roughly 100 seconds to commit to each player each day if their time was split equally. Data quality and fragmentation were also issues.
Grygorenko emphasised that prioritisation was the key to adapting these portfolio sizes.
“[At] above roughly 150 players per manager, personal knowledge stops scaling. The fix is not fewer players or more managers – it is showing each manager which few accounts actually need them today,” she added.
What is Bull Fiesta?
iGB is proud once again to launch its Most Influential Women initiative, now in its ninth year. Since 2018, we have provided a platform for females in the gaming sector to honour their work and the progress they have made in advancing DEI.
Over the course of the campaign’s lifetime, various sectors and subsectors of the industry have been highlighted and the sheer diversity of talent has shone through, year after year. We have had the pleasure of delving into the careers and aspirations of our previous winners, and learned a lot about the make up of the sector along the way.
From recruitment to regulation, cybersecurity, tribal gaming, affiliates, gambling law, C-suite leaders and everything else in between, the campaign has shown that where roles, companies and backgrounds differ, many of the women we have honoured share a united drive to improve diversity within the sector.
