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How to play Gold Splash Toots Froots
“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
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Entain’s share price tumble follows a broader trend for gaming stocks in recent years. Added to that is a declining interest in the LSEG, as listed companies continue to exit at pace, including Flutter, which removed its secondary listing from LSEG in August.
The gaming giant left for greener pastures in the US, expecting to benefit from higher valuations in the most liquid equity market. But analysts have noted a similar downward trend in Flutter’s share price over time.
Down around 60% in a year, the risk is it becomes just another mid-tier consumer stock on a bigger exchange. “Deeper water doesn’t help if the current is moving somewhere else,” Corfai’s Ben Robinson recently said of Flutter’s stock price.
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Moreover, Evolution had continued earning revenue from operators in so-called grey markets without enforcing contractual blocks or other remedial measures despite earlier allegations.
Last month the UK Gambling Commission agreed a regulatory settlement with Evolution of £4.75 million, after finding its games had been accessible via a handful of unlicensed operators in the UK.
In July the Commission said its investigation had discovered the supplier had failed to maintain adequate anti-money laundering and customer due diligence controls in the UK.
